Impact-based forecasting · Anticipatory action · Disaster risk financing

Turning forecasts into decisions before disasters happen.

I design early-warning and anticipatory-action systems for Bangladesh — translating meteorological forecasts into hazard-specific, location-specific triggers that funders, humanitarian actors, and communities can act on ahead of time.

About

Building the technical backbone of anticipatory action

I work on crisis anticipation and disaster risk financing with Start Network Bangladesh and FOREWARN Bangladesh, hosted by ESDO — contributing to programmes including Start Fund Bangladesh (SFB) and Disaster Risk Financing (DRF).

My work sits at the intersection of operational meteorology, climate data engineering, and decision-support design: multi-hazard threshold frameworks, ensemble forecast pipelines, cascading-impact models, and the dashboards and briefs that put them in front of the people who need to act.

→ What I can help your organisation with

Research & systems

Selected work

Systems built end-to-end — from raw NWP/reanalysis data to the thresholds, dashboards, and briefs that decision-makers actually use.

Forecast-X

A WMO-aligned, multi-hazard impact-based warning system covering 600 upazilas, blending four NWP ensembles across 13 variables into an operational risk dashboard.

Operational Impact-based forecasting

Cascading Hazard Impact Framework

Maps hydro-meteorological events through primary and secondary hazard chains to sector-level impacts and early actions — piloted for Chattogram District.

Pilot Cascading risk

ERA5-Land Climate Pipeline

35 years of reanalysis climatology (1990–2025) for 600 upazilas, with derived heat-stress variables including WBGT, feels-like temperature, and relative humidity.

Operational Climate data

→ View all research & systems

Consultancy

Advisory & technical support

For humanitarian organisations, funders, and researchers building or evaluating early-action systems.

IBF system design

Threshold frameworks, trigger design, and dashboard architecture for impact-based forecasting programmes.

Anticipatory action & DRF

Trigger mechanisms, seasonal advisories, and climate finance positioning for anticipatory action funding.

Report & framework review

Structured technical review of vulnerability assessments, evaluation frameworks, and inception reports.

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Teaching & tutorials

Learn the tools behind the systems

Training material and walkthroughs on impact-based forecasting concepts and the technical pipelines behind them.

IBF Foundations (Bengali)

Warning → Impact-Based → Impact Forecasting paradigms, translated with precise Bengali/English terminology for upazila-level decision-making.

Automating weather data with Apps Script

A tutorial series on building an hourly BMD SYNOP data pipeline with Google Apps Script, from decompression to structured sheets.

ERA5 climatology in Colab

A hands-on walkthrough of pulling and processing ERA5-Land reanalysis data for hazard climatology at scale.

→ All courses & tutorials

Channel

On video

Subscribe for walkthroughs on forecasting systems, climate data pipelines, and anticipatory-action concepts.

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Writing

Recent posts

Building Forecast-X: a WMO-aligned multi-hazard warning system for 600 upazilas

How four NWP ensembles, thirteen variables, and a WMO 4×4 risk matrix come together into one operational dashboard.

→ Read the blog